You can get a site directory by clicking on the “hamburger” icon () in the upper right of this page.
Or you can search this site with Google (standard Google-search rules apply).
If you haven’t yet, read the notes about trades at the Batters page, here are the pertinent highlights.
We all know that there is a ferocious amount of money involved in the contracts of the men I urge be traded away. The total currently committed just for 2027 is $85 million. Many say that those outlandish contracts make a trade for any of these men virtually impossible. That is nonsense.
Mind, the Johnsons appear to have just that: non-sense. But Buster Posey majored in finance: he should and assuredly knows what a “sunk cost” is. If you don’t know, and don’t feel like following the link, here it is, per Wikipedia:
A sunk cost is a cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered.
Sunk costs are contrasted with prospective costs, which are future costs that
may be avoided if action is taken. In other words, a sunk cost is a sum paid
in the past that should no longer be relevant to decisions about the future.
And, as Investopedia adds, “The sunk cost fallacy leads to poor
decision-making by continuing failed actions.”
Adrian Houser is the pitcher they need to move out. His 2027 salary would be $12.5 million, plus there would be a $4 million cost to buy him out of 2028: that’ $16.5 million the Giants are currently on the hook for him. His TPP for the year to date is 774, which is Not A Good Thing. Granted, his numbers as a reliever have been much better than those as a starter (but the latter is what he was signed to be). I don’t have TPP splits, but if we use his OPS-yielded ratios as a guide, his estimated TPP as a starter would be 866, which is utterly dreadful, while his estimated TPP as a reliever would be 568, which is fairly good. But is even a fairly good right-handed middle reliever worth $16.5 million? Really? That TPP doesn’t even make the top 50 for reasonably regular relievers this season. You make the call.
There seems to be a widespread notion that the Giants sorely need lots of new pitching help: trade acquisitions and/or free-agent signings. That notion is wrong. It is, as always, a matter of telling the gold from the brass (something the Giants have been very, very bad at, for both pitchers and position players, for some time now). Mind, some new talent, whether from free agency or trades, wouldn’t hurt (especially some strong left-handed relievers); but, with just a little bit of luck, it is not urgently needed.
Let’s look at some of the pitchers who could go in 2027. That look will include men currently on the 60-day IL, but who are expected to be ready to go come Spring. (It thus omits Trevor McDonald, Carson Whisenhunt, and Blade Tidwell, all of whom should be back for 2028.)
One important matter concerning availability is the upcoming Rule 5 draft (MLB says that there will be a draft, the labor situation—the CBA negotiations and near-certain lockout—notwithstanding). Men currently on the long-term (60-day) IL will have to be restored to the 40-man roster 5 days after the end of the World Series. That is going to mean a very great amount of shuffling of the 40-man as cuts are made to protect the desired men currently on that IL. And likely most or all of the cuts will be pitchers. I’m not sure who will and will not end up on the 40-man, nor who might be drafted from the unprotected but draft-eligible pool; I simply carry on in the hope that no one I see as suited for the 2027 26-man roster will be lost to Rule 5. (After the draft is over, men can be placed on or restored to the 60-day IL; that will open up several spots into which hot prospects can be placed.)
Starters
As plausible starter candidates, we see (not necessarily in order of value):
Logan Webb. Webb needs little comment: his career 575 TPP is excellent, and his 2026 TPP of 616 supports it. The one possible issue with him is overwork. He consistently is high among the MLB leader in innings pitched (in 2025, he led all of MLB pitchers; in 2024, he was 3rd; in 2023, he was first). One has fears that they are over-working him to an extent that may shorten his useful career duration. But he is still the #1 starter for 2027.
Yunior Marté. He has an MiLB pedigree that excites. The Giants jumped him up rather quickly: in 2025, he was in low-A ball; in 2026, he has been in high-A, AA, and then right to the majors. Partly the big jump was out of a crying need for arms, with all the IL victims; but still, they must have seen something there. Remember, he is only 23 right now, so there is room for maturing. Not that he’s all that raw right now: two successive outings of five innings each with zero earned runs. Yes, he had one poor outing after that (against the Dodgers); but his ERA otherwise was 2.75 over his four other games. I’d say that that record strongly suggests that he is starter material, and good material at that.
Landen Roupp. Roupp’s major-league TPPs are a fine 573 in 2024 (50.1 IP), a not-good 817 in 2025 (106.2 IP), and a decent 604 in 2026; but that makes a career TPP of 670, which is well over the desired 625 maximum. His minor-league cumulative ERA, though, is 2.56. (There are, of course, substantial non-baseball reasons—Pride Day—for being quite uneasy with him on the team, but for now we will overlook that point.) He seems to be one of those “Little Girl With the Curl“ pitchers.
César Perdomo. Like Marté above, he has had five outings, with the fine work in four of them warped by one bad one (his ERA over the other four is 2.25). His MiLB stats below AAA strongly suggest a quality starter (and he was getting better in AAA, so much so that he earned his promotion to the majors). Though there is some risk, he looks like a sound candidate (especially for a leftie-lacking staff).
Hayden Birdsong. Birdsong was chock full of promise when he came up in 2024, but that season and the next did not fulfill that promise. Whenever he returns from his TJ recovery (which might be as late as June of 2027), there remain high hopes. Right now, that’s all they can be, hopes, but he is probably expected to be in the 2027 rotation. Hopes, hopes, hopes…
Joe Whitman. Why this man has received so little attention is a mystery. His MiLB ERAs are not stunning, but neither are they poor. In the EL this year he was 3.22, which earned him a promotion to Sacramento, where he posted a 3.74—in a league where the average ERA was 5.40! The ever-estimable Roger Munter has had nice things to say about Whitman (follow the link, then search down to “Ok, let’s talk Joe Whitman! ”). In his 2026 “Top 50” list, Whitman is the 25th ranked prospect in the organization; in his later “Top 30” list, Whitman had risen to #17. Would I put him in the rotation for 2027? You bet! Not MLB-tested and proven yet, but a leftie with that pedigree…
Tristan Beck. Beck is a veteran who, till 2026, very quietly put together fine numbers (TPPs 614, 690, 609, but then something went west this year and his TPP hit 809). Over his career, he has been used as a short reliever, a long reliever, and a starter. He is probably best thought of as a nice one-call-away resource in Sacramento (for both relief or starting); but he could be a pleasant surprise.
So: it looks to me like one can extract a pretty solid five starters from that list of six or seven. The table shown farther below shows who I would go with.
The Pen
As noted on the Basics page, there are numerous schemes for using pitchers. The one I will use—not saying it is the best possible, though it may well be the best possible now without going revolutionary—is this: five starters, six later-inning relievers (two each for the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings: two per inning so one doesn’t have to try using the same men day after day), and two pure “fireman” relievers for when someone gets into trouble.
(Another pattern for relievers is a closer—dread term!—a couple of “set-up” men, three middle-inning relievers, and a couple of long-relief men. Those who like to think in those terms can easily re-arrange the pattern described above, as it will be the same men in very similar roles.)
Here—again, not necessarily in value order—are some men who might qualify for a competent bullpen. The list should be considered to also include one or two of the men listed farther above as starter candidates: that is, whichever men that one feels don’t quite make the starter cut but who could be expected to do better in shorter outings as relievers.
Randy Rodriguez. The only question here is whether and how soon he can fully recover from his arm surgery. In 2025, he was phenominally successful (ERA of 1.78, TPP not available). With fingers crossed (a hard way to type), I just hope he will recover well enough (and soon enough) to keep up that amazing quality.
Matt Wilkinson. He is a curious outlier. His velocity usually tops out around 90 mph, but something about his delivery somehow makes it remarkably successful (they call it “The Invisiball”). I feel that the key to best use of “Tugboat” is to use him only an inning or two at a time, lest opposing batters get too used to that quirky delivery. He has a 2026 (which is all of his MLB career) TPP of 619, which is pretty nice. He has been in 8 games, and 6 were quite good and 2 rather bad. I think it noteworthy that his ERA as a starter was 4.37, but zero as a reliever. I know, I know: SSS; but I really think he can be a valuable add to the bullpen (and not a particularly good choice for the rotation).
Trent Harris. Harris has quietly but steadily worked his way up to the majors, leaving a trail of low ERAs behind him. His brief (so far) career in the majors is just what one would expect from his history: a TPP of 491. That makes him a great candidate for the bullpen, even—or especially—in high-leverage situations.
Dylan Smith. He seems to have jumped out of nowhere to a major bullpen role. But he did not in fact spring out of nowhere: he has a quite nice MiLB pedigree (MiLB career ERA of 3.93), and a two-season major-league TPP of 575 (ERA of 3.25). Of late, though, he hit a rough patch: his 2026 monthly ERAs are: May, 0.00; June, 2.25; July, 2.89; August, 4.26; and September, 6.00. My guess is simple overwork. His total 2026 numbers are TPP of 724 and ERA of 3.86. Some have suggested that his 9th-inning work is the problem; the data do suggest that: 6th-inning ERA 0.00; 7th-inning ERA 3.00; 8th-inning ERA 3.68; and 9th-inning ERA 5.93. That might be a real effect, or it might just be randomness. In any event, I still see him as a steady, useful add to the ’pen.
Jason Foley. He had a very nice history going (career TPP of 588), but then was sidelined by an injury. He is now working his way back, and recovery is now proceeding. His 2026 was pretty rough (TPP 843), but his history gives reason to reckon he’ll be a lot better come 2027. We can but (ready for it?) hope.
Joel Peguero: Flame-throwing Peguero has, in his brief major-league career to date, been very effective: TPP of a mere 443 (ERA 2.41) in 33.2 innings. But his minor-league record reeks of poor control: a cumulative MiLB ERA of 4.80, and in Sacramento 5.10 in 2025 and 7.71 in 2026. The loss of Tidwell for 2027 means that they will very likely have to go on with Peguero and hope (that word again) that he can maintain his MLB success.
Matt Gage. A superficial look at Gage’s career numbers is quite deceiving. (I’ll use ERAs here, because I don’t have TPP breakdowns within seasons.) Gage’s career ERA is 3.69 (a TPP of 750), way too high). But…that career number is badly savaged by just his last two months before hitting the IL this year. His ERA from his 2022 MLB debut through and including May of 2026 is a thoroughly respectable 2.44. We can surely write off his dreadful June and July (ERAs of, respectively, 18.00 and 40.50) to his pitching while hurt, which led to that 60-day IL. My reckoning is that if (and when) he recovers OK from the elbow injury, he would be a most useful (and, as a leftie, especially valuable) member of the ’pen.
Sam Hentges. Here is yet another man with a decent history (TPP 681, somewhat high but far from awful) but an elevated 2026 (TPP 783, high and this time definitely not good). I suspect he may not be a good add to the 2027 ’pen, but MLB-ready lefties are so scarce in the organization right now that he may well be better than anyone likely to be considered in his stead.
José Buttó: Buttó has quietly put together a decent major-league relief career, but one that for some reason hit the rocks when the Giants got him: his pre-Giants TPPs from 2023 on are 601, 428, and 613; with the Giants are the 2025 830, and we won’t even count the mere 2.0 disastrous innings he had early this year. Whether he was, in 2025, already feeling the effects of what finally put him on the 60-day IL I do not know. But with the loss of Tidwell (IL) and Brubaker (free agent), they might as well include him, at least to start the season.
Keaton Winn: Winn was pretty much org-guy fodder till this year, when he blossomed into a quality reliever (TPP 547). If he can pick up in 2027 where injury left him off this year, he’d be fine for a bullpen spot. My preference would be to hold him in reserve at Sacramento till he pitches his way up, but the scarcity of quality arms would suggest that he is another man they have to just (all together now) hope can return to his 2026 form for 2027.
Anthony Molina: His MLB career stats are not encouraging: TPP of 896, and prior to his Giants stay, none lower than the 768 he had earlier this year with the Braves. His MiLB record is not attention-grabbing either. But just maybe he has something: it’s SSS (very small, 29.0 IP), but his TPP with the Giants so far is a delightful 482. Maybe he just needed a change of scenery (and almost all his prior MLB work was with the Rockies, a terrible organization in a terrible park for pitching—his BABIPs in Coors were around .350). Were he left-handed, he would certainly be worth taking a flyer on; but, as is, he has to give more than 29 innings of quality work. But note: he might even fit in as a starter if his Giants performance (for example, his K/W ratio of 4.83) does hold up.
I don’t see any big problem assembling an 8-man bullpen from that list (and, again, don’t forget the couple of near-miss starters, be they whom they may). I grant that the word “hope” shows up a lot in these per-man write-ups, but I do not feel that any of the hopes are silly or unrealistic.
The table below shows my thoughts on the optimum 2027 bullpen. If there is a weakness, it is left-handed relief: they have some decent candidates, but a bit more strength there would not go amiss.
The “leftovers”, so to speak, are: Roupp, Winn, Foley, and Beck. A few others, who might be considered dark horses, are: Reiver Sanmartin, R.J. Dabovich, Darien Smith, and Will Bednar.
There are also minor-league free agents to be considered. A couple of pitchers I’d like to see them hold onto are R.J. Dabovich and Cristian Alvarado. Neither is earth-shaking, but each has possibilities; and, as the old saying rightly has it, you can never have too much pitching (even if just in reserve).
The best source of information on Giants prospects is from Roger Munter’s Substack “There R Giants” (some access free, full access modest subscription).
Some pitchers not listed anywhere above who just might become relevant in 2027 are shown below. The link in each case is to that man’s Baseball-Reference page.
Though these young men are now only in the minors, there is precedent for rapid jumps up for pitchers (consider Yunior Marté), so they indeed might possibly make the 2027 team, even if only around the All-Star break.
) in the upper right of this page.